An Investigation on the Effects of Climate Change and Variability in the Rainfall of Old Sudan
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Authors
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Abdalla K Abdalla
Institute of Environmental Studies, University of Khartoum, Sudan
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Tarig El Gamri
The National Centre for Research, Khartoum, Sudan
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A B Saeed
Institute of Environmental Studies, University of Khartoum, Sudan
Abstract
It was estimated that Old Sudan was facing water stress since the per capitaannual share was 1500 m3. It was evident that rainfall plays a determinant role in the
socio-economic set up of Old Sudan. The study area showed marked variation regarding
rainfall distribution since it is almost nil at the extreme north and about 1500 mm at the
extreme Southwest. Isohyetal maps for the two climatic eras’ 1941-1970 and 1971-2000
showed significant southward displacement. The rainfall of both Khartoum and Fashir
showed a trend of decline whereas, maximum temperatures witnessed an increase. The
total annual rainfall data for some meteorological stations, since their inception, were
divided into three eras namely: the period up to 1950, the second half of the 20th century
and the first ten years of the 21st century. Considering the period of up to 1950 as the
base period a striking reduction was observed. For instance, a reduction of approximately
15% was witnessed in the central portion meanwhile it was about 20% in Darfur. In
addition to that, most locations demonstrated significant further decline during the
first ten years of the 21st century. On the other hand, the ENSO event proved to exert
a determinant role in the variability of the rainfall of old Sudan. Contrary to El Nino
the rainfall during La Nina is found to be above normal. Some adaptive options were
recommended including modernization of irrigation and, adoption of supplementary
irrigation and water harvesting.
Key words: Rainfall, ENSO, prediction, socio-economic development, water scarcity,
sanitation.
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