STATISTICAL MODELLING OF INLAND FISH PRODUCTION IN INDIA
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Authors
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R. K. PAUL
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M. K. DAS
Abstract
Fish production in India has increased at a higher rate compared to food grains, milk, egg and other food items. The most widely used time series model i.e. autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is applied for modelling and forecasting of total inland fish production in India. The annual inland fish production data from 1951 to 2000 were used for building the model and data from 2001 to 2008 were used for validation of the model. To this end, evaluation of forecasting of inland fish production was carried out with dynamic one step ahead forecast error variance along with mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) and relative mean absolute prediction error (RMAPE). The forecast of inland fish production in India for the year 2009 and 2010 have been found out as 4360 and 4610 thousand tonnes.
Keywords: ARIMA, inland fish production, forecasting, statistical modelling.
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