Hydrological Dimension of Ladakh under Changing Climate

Purushottam Kumar Garg; Shekhar Singh; Mohit Prajapati; Aamir Jan Farooq; Mohd Ilyas; Ajoy Karmakar; Sandipan Mukherjee

doi:10.56093/aaz.v65i2.175643

Authors

Purushottam Kumar Garg G.B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, Ladakh Regional Centre, Leh-194101, Ladakh UT, India https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5314-0566
Shekhar Singh Ladakh Regional Centre, G. B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, Leh-194101, Ladakh UT, India https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3209-0509
Mohit Prajapati Ladakh Regional Centre, G. B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, Leh-194101, Ladakh UT, India | University of Ladakh, Leh Campus, Taruthang, Leh-194101, Ladakh UT, India https://orcid.org/0009-0002-5632-332X
Aamir Jan Farooq Ladakh Regional Centre, G. B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, Leh-194101, Ladakh UT, India | University of Ladakh, Leh Campus, Taruthang, Leh-194101, Ladakh UT, India https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2178-4636
Mohd Ilyas Ladakh Regional Centre, G. B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, Leh-194101, Ladakh UT, India | University of Ladakh, Leh Campus, Taruthang, Leh-194101, Ladakh UT, India
Ajoy Karmakar Ladakh Regional Centre, G. B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, Leh-194101, Ladakh UT, India
Sandipan Mukherjee Ladakh Regional Centre, G. B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, Leh-194101, Ladakh UT, India https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7299-0304

https://doi.org/10.56093/aaz.v65i2.175643

Keywords:

Glacier hydrology, snow hydrology, spring hydrology, river hydrology, climate dynamics in Ladakh, cryosphere–hydrology interactions, trans- Himalayan region, water security

Abstract

Ladakh, in the Trans-Himalayan region of northern India, hosts a distinctive high-altitude cold-arid hydrological system in which seasonal snow, glaciers, perched aquifers and a limited network of perennial rivers jointly determine water availability for ecological and human systems. This narrative review-synthesis combines literature analysis (80+ studies) with original trend assessment of IMD gridded rainfall/temperature data (1975–2024) using Modified Mann-Kendall tests and Sen’s slope estimation to comprehend the changes in climate and hydrological dimensions. The synthesis reveals significant warming (+0.02°C yr^-1, p<0.05) across Ladakh with spatially variable precipitation trends, earlier snowmelt timing (∼1.2 days yr ⁻¹), and glacier mass loss (−0.21 to −0.37 m w.e. yr^-¹). Springs show declining perennial discharge while Indus tributaries maintain 62–72% cryospheric runoff contribution. Springs and shallow groundwater systems provide disproportionately important perennial supply where surface waters are strongly seasonal, and precipitation is sparse, and major rivers (notably the upper Indus and tributaries such as the Suru, Zanskar, Shyok, and Nubra) integrate cryospheric and groundwater signals at basin scales. Observational and modelling evidence indicate a system in warming drives earlier snowmelt and a transient increase in glacier runoff, followed by long-term declines in glacier melt contributions as ice volume diminishes; concomitant shifts in recharge reduce spring resilience and alter river seasonality. These dynamics increase exposure to both chronic water scarcity and abrupt hazards. To manage these interconnected risks, we recommend priorities: establishment of integrated high-altitude monitoring networks for snow, ice, springs, and river discharge; process-based modelling that couples downscaled climate projections with cryosphere–groundwater–river interactions; systematic mapping and protection of spring recharge zones; and risk-informed, multi-scale water planning that combines conjunctive use, decentralized storage, and community-based adaptation in the fragile Trans-Himalayan landscapes.

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Author Biographies

Purushottam Kumar Garg, G.B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, Ladakh Regional Centre, Leh-194101, Ladakh UT, India

Purushottam Kumar Garg is Scientist ‘C’ at the Ladakh Regional Centre of the G.B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, Leh, Ladakh UT where he leads the Glaciological Research Lab. He earned his PhD in Remote Sensing Glaciology from the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology in affiliation with the University of Jammu and further deepened his expertise through postdoctoral research at IIT Indore. With over a decade of experience, his work combines rigorous field investigations with advanced remote sensing to decode glacier mass balance, ice velocity, snowline altitude, debris cover, ice cliffs, glacial lakes, hydrology, and the cascading impacts of climate change on Himalayan glaciers. Dr. Garg has published more than 35 peer-reviewed papers, authored a book, and contributed over 10 book chapters. He has also played a key role in major research initiatives supported by NMHS, MoEFandCC, and IRD France. His scientific excellence has earned him prestigious recognition, including membership in the Indian National Young Academy of Science (INYAS), expert-member in ICIMOD’s HKH CryoHub Thematic Working Group on Glaciers, the Best Paper/Presentation award by GBPNIHE, the Best Publication Award from ISRS, and the Best Research Paper Award from WIHG, Dehradun.
Shekhar Singh, Ladakh Regional Centre, G. B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, Leh-194101, Ladakh UT, India

Shekhar Singh holds a PhD in Soil and Water Conservation Engineering from GBPUAT, Pantnagar. He is currently a Research Associate at Ladakh Regional Centre of the G.B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, Leh, Ladakh UT. His research focuses on climate change, hydrological modeling, climate extremes, and land-water management. He previously served as a Post-Doctoral research associate at Indian Institute of Technology Indore.
Mohit Prajapati , Ladakh Regional Centre, G. B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, Leh-194101, Ladakh UT, India | University of Ladakh, Leh Campus, Taruthang, Leh-194101, Ladakh UT, India

Mohit Prajapati is Senior Project Fellow at the Ladakh Regional Centre of the G.B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, Leh, Ladakh UT, and a PhD scholar at the University of Ladakh. His research focuses on glacier dynamics in the Ladakh Himalaya, integrating field observations, remote sensing, and geospatial techniques to monitor glaciers and assess the impacts of climate change
Aamir Jan Farooq, Ladakh Regional Centre, G. B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, Leh-194101, Ladakh UT, India | University of Ladakh, Leh Campus, Taruthang, Leh-194101, Ladakh UT, India

Aamir Jan Farooq is a Junior Project Fellow at the Ladakh Regional Centre of the G.B. Pant National
Institute of Himalayan Environment, Leh, Ladakh UT, and a PhD scholar at the University of Ladakh.
His research focuses on spring hydrodynamics in Leh Town, using fieldwork, laboratory analyses, and
RS/GIS, MATLAB, and Python tools for hydrological assessment.
Mohd Ilyas, Ladakh Regional Centre, G. B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, Leh-194101, Ladakh UT, India | University of Ladakh, Leh Campus, Taruthang, Leh-194101, Ladakh UT, India

Mohd Ilyas is a Ph.D. Scholar at the Department of Geology, University of Ladakh, and currently
working as a Senior Project Fellow at the Ladakh Regional Centre of the G.B. Pant National Institute
of Himalayan Environment, Leh, Ladakh UT. His research interests include geology, geomorphology,
glaciers, hydrology, and climate change, with a focus on Himalayan glacier dynamics and environmental
studies
Ajoy Karmakar, Ladakh Regional Centre, G. B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, Leh-194101, Ladakh UT, India

Ajoy Karmakar is a JRF at the Ladakh Regional Centre of the G.B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan
Environment, Leh, Ladakh UT. He completed his M.Sc. in Environmental Science, followed by an M.Tech in Remote Sensing and GIS from the Indian Institute of Remote Sensing. His research interests include climate change, vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions.
Sandipan Mukherjee, Ladakh Regional Centre, G. B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, Leh-194101, Ladakh UT, India

Sandipan Mukherjee is Scientist ‘E’ and Head at the Ladakh Regional Centre of the G.B. Pant National
Institute of Himalayan Environment, Leh, Ladakh UT. He specializes in meteorology, climatology,
hydrometeorology, and climate change. He published more than 45 peer-reviewed papers, 20 peerreviewed
reports, 8 book chapters, and other scholarly outputs.

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