India's Seed Spice Exports amid Geopolitical Disruptions

Abstract

Geopolitical disruptions can affect agricultural trade through higher transportation and insurance costs, shipment delays, market uncertainty and changes in destination demand. However, limited evidence is available on how such disruptions affect India's seed spice exports, despite the growing importance of Gulf markets in India's spice trade. This study examines the export performance and domestic price behaviour of four major Indian seed spices namely, cumin, coriander, fennel and fenugreekduring the period of heightened geopolitical tensions associated with the 2026 Iran conflict. Country-wise export data obtained from the Spices Board of India were analysed to compare export quantity and value across major destinations, with particular attention to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets. Monthly and weekly domestic price data were also examined to assess changes in market behaviour during the period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty. The results indicate substantial crop- and market-specific variation. Cumin exports declined by 14.39 per cent in quantity and 25.37 per cent in value, while fennel recorded the sharpest decline of 56.86 per cent in quantity and 44.97 per cent in value. In contrast, coriander exports remained broadly stable and fenugreek export quantity increased. GCC markets showed greater vulnerability for some seed spices, particularly cumin and fennel, while increased exports to several non-GCC destinations indicate market diversification and trade reorientation. Domestic price responses were also heterogeneous across crops. The findings highlight the vulnerability as well as adaptive capacity of India's seed spice trade during geopolitical disruptions and underline the importance of market diversification and trade-risk management.