Nonlinear Statistical Modelling of Area and Production of   Apple Crop of Kashmir Valley

Uzma Majeed; Nageena Nazir; S.A. Mir; Immad A. Shah; Ishfaq A. Bhat

doi:10.56093/jisas.v77i03.171450

Authors

Uzma Majeed Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, Srinagar, J&K, India
Nageena Nazir Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, Srinagar, J&K, India
S.A. Mir Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, Srinagar, J&K, India
Immad A. Shah Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, Srinagar, J&K, India
Ishfaq A. Bhat Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, Srinagar, J&K, India

https://doi.org/10.56093/jisas.v77i03.171450

Keywords:

Nonlinear models; Apple; Levenberg-Marquardt(LM); Parameters; Forecasting.

Abstract

The current study was conducted to compare the performance of five nonlinear growth models, namely, Monomolecular, Logistics, Gompertz, Richards, and Weibull for studying the area and production of the apple crop in Kashmir. Long-term data for the past 45 years pertaining to the area and production of apple was obtained from the Directorate of Horticulture. Run test and Shapiro-Wilk tests were employed to examine the assumptions of ‘independence’ and ‘normality’ of error terms, respectively. Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) iterative method was used to estimate the parameters. The best model was chosen based on various model adequacy test criteria including MAE, RMSE, MSE, and R2. Therefore, Richards and Weibull models were found to be the best fit for the area and production of apple, respectively. The area and production of the apple crop were forecasted for a few years using the best fit models.

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