Estimation of Crop Area at District Level from Reduced Sample Size - A Case Study in the State of Uttar Pradesh

Abstract

Agriculture plays a vital role in the Indian economy, making the collection and management of agricultural statistics highly significant. Reliable 
statistics are essential for sustaining growth in the agricultural sector. Area and production estimates form the two primary components of agricultural 
statistics. Traditionally, area estimates are generated through village listing using a household-based approach followed by complete enumeration. 
Under both the Timely Reporting Scheme (TRS) and the Establishment of an Agency for Reporting Area Statistics (EARAS), 20% of villages in each 
state are selected annually for full enumeration. However, due to limited manpower and an overwhelming workload, data quality has been declining, 
and the expected outcomes are not being fully realized. Moreover, enumerating such a large proportion of villages is time-consuming, making it 
difficult to produce timely data for policy formulation.
To address these challenges, ICAR-IASRI, New Delhi, with support from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES), Ministry of Agriculture 
and Farmers’ Welfare (MoA & FW), Government of India, conducted a pilot study to generate district-level area estimates for major food grain crops 
using a reduced village sample. In this approach, villages are not fully enumerated; instead, crop area is estimated from a carefully selected sample, 
serving as an alternative to the patwari-based system used in TRS. This paper presents the findings of the pilot study conducted in Uttar Pradesh for 
two major crops—rice and wheat—across the Kharif and Rabi seasons of the 2015–16 agricultural year.