Time series analysis and forecasting of kinnow (Citrus reticulata) arrivals and prices in Himachal Pradesh

Abstract

Kinnow (Citrus reticulata Blanco) plays a significant role in the economic and agricultural sustainability of farmers in Himachal Pradesh, contributing approximately 47.31% to the state’s total citrus production. The present study investigated long-term trends, seasonal variations, instability, and forecasting of kinnow prices and market arrivals in two major markets, Dhanotu and Kangra, Himachal Pradesh during the period 2005–23. Trend analysis based on regression models indicated that market arrivals followed quadratic and power functional forms, whereas prices exhibited a cubic trend across the selected markets. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) indicated a positive growth in both arrivals and prices over the study period. Seasonal indices highlighted clear monthly variations, reflecting distinct seasonal patterns in market arrivals and prices fluctuations. The Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI) showed significant instability in arrivals, whereas prices instability remained relatively low across both markets. For
forecasting, SARIMA models were employed, which projected a steady increase in kinnow prices in the coming years, while arrivals are expected to stabilise and follow a relatively constant trend beyond 2025. The forecasting results indicated potential for better price realisation for farmers if market arrivals are managed efficiently. The findings may provide useful insights for farmers to optimise harvesting and marketing decisions, and for policymakers to design effective price stabilisation measures, improve market infrastructure, and enhance supply chain efficiency. Overall, the study contributes to informed decision-making and sustainable development in the kinnow sector.