Trend analysis and forecast of arrivals and prices of kinnow crop in Himachal Pradesh
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Authors
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Mr. Vishal Thakur
Dr. Yashwant Singh Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry
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Dr. Anju Sharma
Dr. Yashwant Singh Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry
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Dr. RK Gupta
Dr. Yashwant Singh Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry
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Dr. Ashu Chandel
Dr. Yashwant Singh Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry
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Mr. Sahil Verma
Dr. Yashwant Singh Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry
Keywords:
TREND,FORECAST,SARIMA,RMSE,AICAbstract
An attempt has been done to analysis the pattern of market arrivals and prices for kinnow crop which was conducted at the Dr. Y.S. Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry , Nauni, Solan H.P. during the year 2024. The trends and variability of prices and market arrivals were computed for the crop in two major markets , namely Dhanotu and Kangra of the Himachal Pradesh state of India from the 2005-2023. Different trend models were applied which revealed that quadratic and power models fit best for the arrivals data while cubic models fit best for the prices data. Seasonal index were analyzed , which revealed the monthly peaks and lean for prices and arrivals in each markets. The CDVI revealed instability in the arrivals and prices of kinnow crop. The arrivals data were highly unstable, while the prices data showed medium instability for kinnow markets. The growth rate for kinnow crop arrivals were computed using CGR. There was a positive growth rate for arrivals across all kinnow markets. In terms of prices, the growth rate remained positive across all markets .The relationship between market prices and arrivals was computed using correlation coefficients. The analysis showed a negative relationship was observed in the kinnow market. The SARIMA model was employed to forecast the arrivals and prices of kinnow crop which can be advantageous for both farmers and policymarkers.
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