Pulse landscape of Madhya Pradesh: Insights from Markov Chain Analysis

Rekha  Rani; ASHIS RANJAN UDGATA; Uma  Sah; Anwesha  Dey; Priyanka  Lal

doi:10.56093/ijas.v96i11.178561

Authors

Rekha Rani
ASHIS RANJAN UDGATA ICAR-IIPR,Kanpur, UP
Uma Sah
Anwesha Dey
Priyanka Lal

https://doi.org/10.56093/ijas.v96i11.178561

Keywords:

Area substitution, Crop diversification, Pulses, Madhya Pradesh, Markov Chain Model

Abstract

Madhya Pradesh plays a crucial role in India’s pulse production and self-sufficiency. Its contribution is significant in terms of area, production, policy support, and technology adoption. The cropping pattern in Madhya Pradesh is dynamic in nature with a continuous area transition is being observed among pulses, cereals, oilseeds, and commercial crops. This study aims to examine the dynamics of area substitution, the extent and concentration of crop diversification, and trends in acreage under major crops and crop groups in the state. District-wise data on area under major crop groups were collected from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics for the period 2001–2022, and the Composite Entropy Index was computed to assess crop diversification. Further, area substitution among major kharif and rabi crops was analyzed for the period 2001–02 to 2024–25 by using Markov Chain Model. The findings reveal a gradual shift in the state’s agriculture towards relatively high-value crops, along with the identification of low, medium, and highly diversified districts, indicating the need for region-specific policy interventions. The analysis of area substitution dynamics shows that chickpea and pigeon pea remain relatively stable among pulse crops. However, the study also highlights ongoing substitution of pulses with other crops, underscoring the need for targeted policy measures, including yield-enhancing technologies, risk reduction strategies, improved infrastructure, and market-driven interventions to promote pulses expansion and strengthen national self-sufficiency.

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