Forecasting technological needs and prioritizing factors in agriculture from a plant breeding and genetics domain perspective: A review

RAMASUBRAMANIAN V; AMRENDER KUMAR; K V PRABHU; V K BHATIA; P RAMASUNDARAM

doi:10.56093/ijas.v84i3.38558

Authors

RAMASUBRAMANIAN V Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute (IASRI), New Delhi 110 012
AMRENDER KUMAR Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute (IASRI), New Delhi 110 012
K V PRABHU IARI, New Delhi 110 012
V K BHATIA Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute (IASRI), New Delhi 110 012
P RAMASUNDARAM National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, New Delhi 110 012

https://doi.org/10.56093/ijas.v84i3.38558

Keywords:

Brainstorming, Multidimensional scaling, Plant Breeding and Genetics, Questionnaire approach, Scoring method, Technology forecasting.

Abstract

Future technologies in the domain of Indian agriculture are expected to be different from what these are now. The subject of Technology Forecasting (TF) can be resorted to identify the needs to fill the gaps in the present technological trends. As a TF exercise, Brainstorming and Questionnaire approaches were employed to envision future technological needs for one of the subdomains of agriculture, i e Plant Breeding and Genetics (PB&G). Information obtained from experts was subjected to linear combination weighted scoring method for prioritizing key factors leading to future technological needs and were analyzed using multi-dimensional scaling for identifying key agricultural dimensions.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Bhatia V K, Ramasubramanian V, Kumar A, Rai A, Pal S, Chaturvedi K K and Agrawal R. 2012. Sub-programme on ‘Technology Forecasting’ in NAIP project ‘Visioning Policy Analysis and Gender’. Project report, IASRI, New Delhi.

Garg K C, Kumar S, Bhatia V K, Ramasubramanian V, Kumar A and Kumari Jyoti. 2011. Plant genetics and breeding research: Scientometric profile of selected countries with special reference to India. Annals of Library and Information Studies 58(6): 184–97.

Georghiou L, Harper J C, Keenan M, Miles I and Popper R. 2008. The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice. PRIME Series on Research and Innovation Policy, UK. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4337/9781781008768

Hair J F, Anderson R E, Tatham R L and Black W C. 1995. Multivariate Data Analysis, 4th Edition. Prentice Hall, New Jersey.

Izenman A J. 2008. Modern Multivariate Statistical Techniques: Regression, Classification and Manifold Learning. Springer, New York. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-78189-1

Jeeva J C, Ramasubramanian V, Kumar A, Bhatia V K, Geethalakshmi V, Premi S K and Ramasundaram P. 2013. Forecasting technological needs and prioritizing factors for the post-harvest sector of Indian fisheries. Fishery Technology 50: 87–91.

Jones H and Twiss B. 1978. Forecasting Technology for Planning Decisions. Macmillan Press, London. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-03134-4

Kruskal J B and Wish M. 1978. Multidimensional Scaling, Series: Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences. Sage University Press, California. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4135/9781412985130

Martino J P. 1983. Technological Forecasting for Decision Making. American Elsevier Publishing Company, New York.

Porter A L, Ashton W B, Clar G, Coates J F, Cuhls K, Cunningham S W, Ducatel K, van der Duin P, Georgehiou L, Gordon T, Linstone H, Marchau V, Massari G, Miles I, Mogee M, Salo A, Scapolo F, Smits R and Thissen W. 2004. Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods by Technology Futures Analysis Methods Working Group. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 71: 287–303. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004

Rajalahti R, van der Heijden K, Janssen W and Pehu E. 2006. Scenario planning to guide long-term investments in agricultural science and technology: Theory and practice from a case study on India. Agriculture and Rural Development, World Bank, Washington. Available in http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTARD/Resources/Scenario_Planning_DP_29_final.pdf; accessed on 28 June 2013.

Rao D R and Kiresur V K. 1994. Technological Forecasting of Sorghum Scenario in India. Project report, NAARM, Hyderabad.

Rao D R, Kiresur V K and Sastry R Kalpana. 2000. Technological Forecasting of Future Oilseeds Scenario in India. ICAR-AP Cess Fund project report, NAARM, Hyderabad.

Rohatgi P K, Rohatgi Kalpana and Bowonder B. 1979. Technological Forecasting. Tata McGraw-Hill Publishing Company, New Delhi.

Roper A T, Cunningham S W, Porter A L, Mason T W, Rossini F A and Banks J. 2011. Forecasting and Management of Technology, Second edition. John Wiley and Sons, New Jersey. Saaty T L. 1988. Multicriteria Decision making – The Analytic Hierarchy Process: Planning, Priority Setting, Resource Allocation. University of Pittsburgh, USA. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118047989

Sastry K R, Rashmi H B, Rao N H and Ilyas S M. 2010. Integrating nanotechnology into agri-food systems research in India: A conceptual framework. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 77: 639–48. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2009.11.008