A comparative study of Indonesia’s tuna export competitiveness to Japan and the United States during 2012–2022

Anissa Aprilia Nurkhasanah

doi:10.21077/ijf.2026.73.1.173198-18

Authors

Anissa Aprilia Nurkhasanah Universitas Brawijaya (PSDKU)

https://doi.org/10.21077/ijf.2026.73.1.173198-18

Keywords:

Competitiveness, Export, Japan,Tuna, United States

Abstract

This study investigated the export competitiveness of Indonesian fishery products in the Japanese and United States (U.S. markets over the period from 2012 to 2022. A quantitative analytical framework was employed, integrating Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamics (EPD), Constant Market Share (CMS), and a log-linear gravity model, complemented by a SWOT assessment. Trade data were sourced from the UN Comtrade database. The RCA results confirmed a sustained comparative advantage, average RCA value exceeding 2.5 in the U.S. market and 1.8 in Japan, indicating a stronger relative competitiveness in the U.S.. The EPD classification identified HS 030487 as a “Rising Star”, while several other product groups remained in the “Cash Cow” and “Lost Opportunity” quadrants, reflecting structural vulnerabilities in market positioning. CMS decomposition showed that export growth was predominantly driven by market distribution effects (62%) and product composition effects (27%), whereas competitiveness effects contributed marginally, indicating limited structural upgrading. The gravity model results reveal that Indonesian tuna exports increase by approximately 0.88% with a 1% rise in Indonesia's GDP, and by 0.74% per 1% increase in the importing country's GDP. Conversely, exports decrease by 1.18% with a 1% increase in bilateral distance, underscoring the elasticity of trade flows to economic scale and logistical constraints. These findings indicate that export performance is more responsive to macroeconomic demand conditions and trade costs than to intrinsic competitiveness improvements. The integration of empirical gravity results with SWOT analysis highlights the importance of enhancing logistics efficiency and reducing transport-related trade costs to counteract the effects of distance elasticity. Strengthening product certification, quality upgradation, and market diversification are essential to transition products towards high-growth segments and capitalise on expanding demand. This study contributes to the literature by linking trade elasticity analysis with strategic competitiveness frameworks in the fisheries export sector.

Keywords: Export Product Dynamics (EPD), Fishery products, Gravity model, Trade elasticity SWOT analysis

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