POTATO TRADE DYNAMICS IN INDIA:A MARKOV CHAIN ANALYSIS
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Authors
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Shivalika Sood
Lovely Professional University
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Nitin Goyal
Lovely Professional University
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SK Goyal
Chaudhary Charan Singh, Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar, Haryana
Keywords:
Compound Growth Rate, Coppock’s Instability Index, Markov Chain AnalysisAbstract
An attempt has been made in this paper to study direction of trade of Indian potato.
The study is based on secondary data collected for the periods 2003-04 to 2022-23 on area, production
and productivity of potato in India and period 2014-15 to 2023-24 on destination-wise export of potato
from India. Besides simple tabular analysis, compound growth rates (CGRs), Coppock’s instability
index and Markov Chain analysis were used to derive the inferences of the study. In India, area,
production and productivity of potato have registered positive and significant growth rate of 2.80,
4.83 and 1.97 per cent per annum, respectively. This clearly indicates that the production of potato
in India increased due to area expansion followed by yield improvement. The instability index
in area, production and productivity was 4.91, 8.85 and 6.86 per cent, respectively which may be
considered relatively low. It was further found that Nepal was the most stable country among major
importers of Indian potato as reflected by its high probability of retention (78%). All other countries
(Oman, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and UAE) had zero probability of retention, hence are most unstable.
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