PROJECTION OF POTATO EXPORT FROM INDIA: A MARKOV CHAIN APPROACH

Abstract

The paper analyses the trends in area, production and yield of potato during 1950-51 to 2006-07 in India. The growth in value of output from potato and its comparison with fruits and vegetables and total value of output from agriculture was estimated during 1999-2000 to 2005-06 in major potato growing states in India. Apart from this the export of fresh or chilled potatoes in reliable markets and structural changes in composition of various products of potato were also predicted till the end of XIth Five Year Plan by using Markov Chain approach. The study observed that the annual compound growth in area, production and yield was lowest in post-WTO period (1997-2006) in comparison to any sub-period or entire period of the study. The analysis of the export composition of potato products reveals that the share of potatoes, fresh or chilled, and potatoes other than seed potatoes, fresh/chilled, declined while share of flakes, granules and pellets of potatoes had increased substantially during 2003-07. Nepal, Sri Lanka, Mauritius, Malaysia, Singapore and United Arab Emirates are projected as reliable markets for potato products till the end of XI^th Five Year Plan. The study suggests that to strengthen potato production ensure positive growth in yield and to sustain in world markets in exports of potato products there is a need to focus on reliable markets and demand driven products, bring about changes in research priorities and strengthen the linkages among researchers, extension personnel and policy planners.