Production performance of maize in India: an economic analysisq

Abstract

The study evaluates maize performance in India using time series data on area, production, and productivity. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and instability analysis were conducted, along with the Bai- Perron test to detect structural breaks in production across major states. Results showed growth rates of 2% in area, 4.6% in production, and 2.6% in productivity from 1991-2020. Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Gujarat saw declining area and production shares, while Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Maharashtra experienced increases. Bihar maintained the highest share but declined over time, whereas Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal saw growth in rabi maize area and production. Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra performed well in Periods I and II, while West Bengal and Tamil Nadu showed strong growth in Periods II and III. Traditional maize-growing states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Bihar exhibited negative area growth and lower production and productivity gains. Structural breaks occurred in 2002 for area and 2006 for yield, after which both increased.