Forecasting onion price for Varanasi market of Uttar Pradesh, India

PRAMOD KUMAR; PRAKASH SINGH BADAL; RANJIT KUMAR PAUL; G K JHA; VENKATESH P; KAMALVANSHI KAMALVANSHI; ANBUKANI P; BALASUBRAMANIAN M; PREETI PATEL

doi:10.56093/ijas.v91i2.111603

Authors

PRAMOD KUMAR Indian agricultural research Institute, New Delhi
PRAKASH SINGH BADAL Indian agricultural research Institute, New Delhi
RANJIT KUMAR PAUL Indian agricultural research Institute, New Delhi
G K JHA Indian agricultural research Institute, New Delhi
VENKATESH P Indian agricultural research Institute, New Delhi
KAMALVANSHI KAMALVANSHI Indian agricultural research Institute, New Delhi
ANBUKANI P Indian agricultural research Institute, New Delhi
BALASUBRAMANIAN M Indian agricultural research Institute, New Delhi
PREETI PATEL Indian agricultural research Institute, New Delhi

https://doi.org/10.56093/ijas.v91i2.111603

Keywords:

ARIMA, GARCH, Onion price, Price forecasting

Abstract

The onion crop is widely seen as the poor man's vegetable, has the power to change electoral results (Anonymous 2019). In India Onion (Allium cepa) is cultivated in an area of 12.7 lakh ha and produces 215.64 lakh ton. In Uttar Pradesh it is cultivated in an area of 0.25 lakh ha producing 4.23 lakh ton. The study was done during 2020 at IARI, New Delhi. Development of appropriate price forecasting mechanism and dissemination among the farmers would help alleviate problems faced by the farmers and consumers alike. The average price of onion throughout the year, during the study period of 2015-2020, has been fluctuating between ₹ 900-2200/quintal. The ARIMA (0,1,2)(1,0,0) [52] and ARFIMA(3,0,0)-sGARCH (1,1) model were found to be best fit model. However, on the basis of MAPE, MSE, RMSE and Theil's U statistics it was observed that the ARMA-GARCH model outperformed the ARIMA model.

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