Applicability of medium range weather forecasts for yield prediction of wheat using CERES-wheat model in South-Western Punjab

Ramanjit Kaur Randhawa

doi:10.56093/ijas.v95i10.148258

Authors

Ramanjit Kaur Randhawa ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, Pusa, New Delhi 110 012

https://doi.org/10.56093/ijas.v95i10.148258

Abstract

The current study evaluates the predictability of wheat production using forecast scenarios that were gathered from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in order to evaluate the potential of the wheat season weather forecast. CERES-Wheat model was used to estimate crop phenology and wheat yield. In this regard, the experiment was carried out in a split-plot design at Punjab Agricultural University (PAU), Regional Research Station, Bathinda (30°36'09" N, 74°28'55" E) during the rabi season of 2021 with three replications. The main plot treatments included five sowing dates viz., Oct. 25, Nov. 4, Nov. 14, Nov. 24 and Dec. 4 with four sub-plot treatments of variety which were HD 3086, PBW 725, HD 2967 and PBW 658. All the cultural practices were followed as per the package of practices of Punjab Agricultural University except the experimental treatments. Model validation showed that simulated emergence, anthesis and maturity were deviated over observed by 1-3 days, 1-8 days, and 1-20 days, respectively, whereas anthesis, maturity and yield were overestimated. Additionally, the simulated wheat yield differed from the observed yield by 0.5 to 12 percent. Phenology and yield were found to have greater RMSE values, wider deviations between simulated and actual values and less connection with delayed sowing. For the wheat growing season (2013–2021), rainfall, T_max, and T_min weather forecast were employed, which were to assess the likelihood of wheat production at various sowing periods. The medium-range weather forecast and the actual weather data closely matched each other for wheat phenology and yield. The annual fluctuation in observed wheat yield as well as treatment-wise variations was more or less effectively reflected by the daily medium-range weather forecast data. The research's conclusions are very useful for making decisions in the study region, determining when to sow wheat and other agricultural inputs and developing long-term plans for other agricultural chores.

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Author Biography

Ramanjit Kaur Randhawa, ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, Pusa, New Delhi 110 012

PrincipalÂ Scientist

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