Growth dynamics of citrus fruits in India: A decomposition analysiswith seasonal indicators

VARNIKA SHARMA; VISHANI  THAKUR; ASHU  CHANDEL; R K  GUPTA; SAMRITI; VIJIT  GUPTA

doi:10.56093/ijas.v96i5.167228

Authors

VARNIKA SHARMA Dr. Yashwant Singh Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry, Nauni , Solan, Himachal Pradesh 173 230, India
VISHANI THAKUR Dr. Yashwant Singh Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry, Nauni , Solan, Himachal Pradesh 173 230, India
ASHU CHANDEL Dr. Yashwant Singh Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry, Nauni , Solan, Himachal Pradesh 173 230, India
R K GUPTA Dr. Yashwant Singh Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry, Nauni , Solan, Himachal Pradesh 173 230, India
SAMRITI Dr. Yashwant Singh Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry, Nauni , Solan, Himachal Pradesh 173 230, India
VIJIT GUPTA Dr. Yashwant Singh Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry, Nauni , Solan, Himachal Pradesh 173 230, India

https://doi.org/10.56093/ijas.v96i5.167228

Keywords:

Growth rate, Lemon, Productivity, Time series, Trends

Abstract

This study focused on the dynamics of citrus production in India and Himachal Pradesh over a 48 year period (1975–2022), emphasising regional differences and underlying development drivers. Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and decomposition analysis were employed to examine the contributions of acreage, yield, and their interaction to production growth. Citrus production in India was primarily area-driven, with acreage growing by 12.96% during the period, while yield gains were minor (-0.26%). In Himachal Pradesh, however, output growth was driven by yields, with an 8.11% increase contributing considerably to the overall 10.45% growth. Seasonal indices of lemon prices and arrivals in four main northern Indian markets i.e. Ambala, Jassur, Azadpur, and Dehradun showed that prices peaked in April and May, with arrivals following similar seasonal trends. Notably, Azadpur had the highest price trend value of 7.73 in December, demonstrating the impact of large-scale production and effective supply chains. It underscored the relevance of contemporary farming techniques, resource management, and climate-friendly solutions for increasing
productivity. Furthermore, insights about lemon market trends provided actionable guidance for optimising supply chains and eliminating market anomalies, particularly in volatile places such as Ambala and Dehradun. By combining data analysis with policy recommendations, this research provides a comprehensive framework for enhancing citrus production and market efficiency in India.

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