Projecting growth in Indian horticulture: A time series analysis of area, production, and productivity using ARIMA models

Abstract

The horticulture sector plays a crucial role in India's agricultural economy, emerging as a dynamic and rapidly expanding component of agriculture. It contributes significantly to farmers’ income, food security, and nutritional well-being. The present study analysed trends and patterns in the area, production, and productivity of the Indian horticulture sector over 33 years (1991–92 to 2023–24). The time-series data for this period were collected from Horticulture Statistics at a Glance, published by the Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Government of India. ARIMA models were employed to generate forecasts for the period 2025–26 to 2050–51. The results indicated a continuous upward trend in all three parameters over the study period. The area under horticulture is projected to reach about 42.77 million hectares by 2050–51, while production and productivity were expected to rise to 567.25 million tonnes and 16.30 tonnes per hectare, respectively. These projections were validated through residual analysis with low Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values (2.17% for area, 2.65% for production, and 3.05% for productivity), confirming the robustness of the predictions.  The study suggested that, to maintain this positive trajectory, targeted investments in research, modern infrastructure, efficient resource management, post-harvest management strategies, sustainable farming practices, and supportive policy measures are needed to sustain the horticulture sector's growth.