Impact of technology and policy on growth and instability of agricultural production: The case of cotton in India

Abstract

Cotton is a crop that underwent continuous technology and policy shifts over period of time, and thus is a test case through which one can examine the changes in the growth and associated instability. The major technology and policy changes cotton cultivation saw include the commercial hybrids’ introduction in late 1960s, diffusion in 1970s and 80s supported by favourable public policy, emergence of new constraints in cotton cultivation in technological and institutional fronts in 1990s and introduction of genetically modified cotton during early years of the last decade. This study reveals that shifts in technology and policy are associated with distinct changes in major agricultural parameters like growth and instability of area, production and yield. National cotton production stagnated during pre-hybrid phase, exhibited significant and positive growth during the early hybrid phase ushered in by public sector, and showed stagnation again during the late hybrid phase. This was followed by significant positive growth during the Bt phase. This trend was in tandem with the trends in yield as well. The pattern of growth in area, production and yield was closely associated with instability also – generally low during the pre-hybrid phase, increased substantially during the early hybrid phase, but fell during the late hybrid phase and exacerbated during the Bt phase.