Forecasting podfly (Melanogromyza obtusa) in late pigeonpea (Cajanus cajan)

RANJANA AGRAWAL; AMRENDER KUMAR; S K SINGH

doi:10.56093/ijas.v84i2.38034

Authors

RANJANA AGRAWAL Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute, New Delhi 110 012
AMRENDER KUMAR Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute, New Delhi 110 012
S K SINGH Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute, New Delhi 110 012

https://doi.org/10.56093/ijas.v84i2.38034

Keywords:

Forecasting, Logistic Model, Podfly, Weather based regression model

Abstract

Qualitative and quantitative models were developed for damage due to podfly (Melanogromyza obtusa) on late maturing pigeonpea [Cajanus cajan (L.) Millsp] in Kanpur. Historical data from 1987-88 to 2009-10 on per cent pod damage and weekly weather variables were considered for model fitting. Weather based indices were generated which were used as explanatory variables. Models were validated on subsequent periods (2010-11 and 2011-12) data and found to be satisfactory for both qualitative (epidemic/non-epidemic year) and quantitative (extent of damage)forewarning of damage due to podfly in late pigeonpea at Kanpur.

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References

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