Pre harvest forecasting of crop yield using non-linear regression modelling: A concept

SANJEEV PANWAR; K N SINGH; ANIL KUMAR; BISHAL GURUNG; SUSHEEL KUMAR SARKAR; SIVARAMANE N; ABHISHEK RATHORE

doi:10.56093/ijas.v87i5.70210

Authors

SANJEEV PANWAR Indian Council of Agricultural Research, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi 110 001
K N SINGH Indian Council of Agricultural Research, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi 110 001
ANIL KUMAR Indian Council of Agricultural Research, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi 110 001
BISHAL GURUNG Indian Council of Agricultural Research, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi 110 001
SUSHEEL KUMAR SARKAR Indian Council of Agricultural Research, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi 110 001
SIVARAMANE N Indian Council of Agricultural Research, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi 110 001
ABHISHEK RATHORE Indian Council of Agricultural Research, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi 110 001

https://doi.org/10.56093/ijas.v87i5.70210

Keywords:

Detrended yield, Forecasting, Nonlinear model, Weather Indices Approach, Weather variables

Abstract

The concept of pre-harvesting of crop yield using nonlinear growth models and detrended yield for developing yield forecast model is rarely employed in forecasting. A novel approach attempted in this study to use nonlinear models with different weather variables and their indices and compare them to identify a suitable forecasting model. Weather indices based regression models were developed using weather indices as independent variables while
detrended yield (residuals) was considered as dependent variable. The approach provided reliable yield forecast
about two months before harvest.

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