Exploratory analysis on the predictability of oil sardine landings in Kerala
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Abstract
In recent times, the oil sardine fishery along the west coast especially off thecoast of Kerala shows signs of decline coupled with its year to year variability.
In this study an empirical model is given to describe the oil sardine fishery
along the Kerala coast using the time series approach and also examine its
relationship with the climatic factors such as the rainfall, mean sea level
pressure and solar activity. The analysis has revealed, albeit tentatively, the
possible factors causing short-term and long-term variations in the catches of
the oil sardine. Predictive models based purely on the autocorrelations and
cyclic trend suggest possibility of generating forecasts which can be validated
taking into consideration the long-term and year to year concomitant
variations in the correlated factors. The present study is only a beginning in
the search for a suitable predictive system for the small pelagics such as the
oil sardine.
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The copyright of the articles published in Indian Journal of Fisheries vests with the Indian Council of Agricultural Research, who has the right to enter into any agreement with any organization in India or abroad engaged in reprography, photocopying, storage and dissemination of information contained in these journals. The Council has no objection in using the material, provided the information is being utilized for academic purpose but not for commercial use. Due credit line should be given to the ICAR where information will be utilized.How to Cite
Srinath, M. (2011). Exploratory analysis on the predictability of oil sardine landings in Kerala. Indian Journal of Fisheries, 45(4), 363-374. https://epubs.icar.org.in/index.php/IJF/article/view/8681