Exploratory analysis on the predictability of oil sardine landings in Kerala


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Authors

  • M Srinath Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute, Cochin - 682 014, India

Abstract

In recent times, the oil sardine fishery along the west coast especially off the
coast of Kerala shows signs of decline coupled with its year to year variability.
In this study an empirical model is given to describe the oil sardine fishery
along the Kerala coast using the time series approach and also examine its
relationship with the climatic factors such as the rainfall, mean sea level
pressure and solar activity. The analysis has revealed, albeit tentatively, the
possible factors causing short-term and long-term variations in the catches of
the oil sardine. Predictive models based purely on the autocorrelations and
cyclic trend suggest possibility of generating forecasts which can be validated
taking into consideration the long-term and year to year concomitant
variations in the correlated factors. The present study is only a beginning in
the search for a suitable predictive system for the small pelagics such as the
oil sardine.

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Author Biography

  • M Srinath, Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute, Cochin - 682 014, India
    Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute, Cochin - 682 014, India

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How to Cite

Srinath, M. (2011). Exploratory analysis on the predictability of oil sardine landings in Kerala. Indian Journal of Fisheries, 45(4), 363-374. https://epubs.icar.org.in/index.php/IJF/article/view/8681