Assessing Changes in Climate Extremes using CMIP6 and its Implications for Agriculture in the Ganges Delta

FAZLUL KARIM; YINGYING YU; MOHAMMAD KAMRUZZAMAN; UTTAM KUMAR MANDAL; TASLIMA  ZAHAN; PRIYA LAL CHANDRA PAUL; MOHAMMED MAINUDDIN

doi:10.54894/JISCAR.42.1.2024.147069

Authors

FAZLUL KARIM CSIRO Environment, Canberra, ACT - 2601, Australia
YINGYING YU CSIRO Environment, Brisbane, QLD - 4102, Australia
MOHAMMAD KAMRUZZAMAN Farm Machinery and Postharvest Technology Division, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, Gazipur - 1701, Bangladesh
UTTAM KUMAR MANDAL ICAR-Central Soil Salinity Research Institute, Regional Research Station, Regional Research Station, Canning Town - 743 329, West Bengal, India
TASLIMA ZAHAN On-farm Research Division, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute, Gazipur - 1701, Bangladesh
PRIYA LAL CHANDRA PAUL Irrigation and Water Management Division, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, Gazipur - 1701, Bangladesh
MOHAMMED MAINUDDIN CSIRO Environment, Canberra, ACT - 2601, Australia

https://doi.org/10.54894/JISCAR.42.1.2024.147069

Keywords:

Climate risk, Agriculture, Bangladesh, West Bengal, Coastal zone

Abstract

Climate extremes are the major concerns due to their impact on agriculture and ecosystem services. This study examined the frequency and spatial extent of 9 climate extreme indices relevant to agriculture in the coastal region of the Ganges Delta in Bangladesh and India. The study was conducted using the latest projected future climate data from IPCC’s sixth assessment report (CMIP6, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6). Agriculture in the Ganges Delta suffers the most due to less availability of usable water; therefore, the study particularly focused on projected climate changes during the dry season (November-April), at short-term (2021-2040), mid-term (2041-2060) and long-term (2061-2100) basis. The results show an overall increase for both temperature and rainfall, with variations occurring spatially and temporarily. Across the region, projected maximum temperature increases are 1.3°C and 2.2°C for the mid and long-term, respectively under SSP245 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). The difference between daily maximum and minimum temperature decreases indicating a higher increase for minimum temperature compared to maximum temperature. At an annual scale, the rainfall increases by 160, 400, and 620 mm under the short, medium and long-term projections, respectively. For the same projection periods, the total rainfall during the dry season rises by 12, 42 and 41 mm respectively. Similar increasing trend was also observed at mid and long-term projections. The intensity of 1-day and 5-day rainfall increases in both short and long-term compared to the historical average rainfall of the region. While total rainfall increases during the dry season, the number of consecutive wet days remains unchanged and the number of consecutive dry days slightly increases across the region. It implies that shorter but more intense spells of rainfall are likely to occur during the dry season in the Sundarbans. The findings of this study are valuable for adaptation and future planning to minimize climate risks to agriculture.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

ABC News. (2023). Why Winter is Getting Warmer and What it Means for the Future, 13 March 2023. https://abcnews.go.com/US/winter-warmer-means-future/story?id=97801342 (Retrived on 14 December 2023).

Abdullah, A.Y.M., Bhuian, M.H., Kiselev, G., Dewan, A., Hassan, Q.K. and Rafiuddin, M. (2022). Extreme temperature and rainfall events in Bangladesh: A comparison between coastal and inland areas. International Journal of Climatology 42(6): 3253-3273. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6911.

Ahmed, I., Ishtiaque, S., Zahan, T., Rashed, M.S.U., Sen, R., Hossain, M.F., Brahma, S., Ahmed, I.M., Hossain, M.A., Ali, M.A., Jahan, A.H.S., Imtiaz, S., Naher, Q., Mujahidi, T.A., Biswas, S. and Haque, M.I. (2022). Climate change vulnerability in Bangladesh based on trend analysis of some extreme temperature indices. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 149(1-2): 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04079-4.

Asada, H., Matsumoto, J. and Rahman, R. (2005). Impact of recent severe floods on rice production in Bangladesh. Geographical Review of Japan 78(12): 783-793. https://doi.org/10.4157/grj.78.783.

Bell, R.W., Mainuddin, M., Barrett-Lennard, E.G., Sarangi, S.K., Maniruzzaman, M., Brahmachari, K., Sarker, K.K., Burman, D., Gaydon, D.S., Kirby, J.M., Glover, M., Rashid, M.H., Khan, M.S.I., Kabir, M.E., Rahman, M.A. and Hossain, M.B. (2019). Cropping systems intensification in the coastal zone of the Ganges Delta: Opportunities and risks. Journal of the Indian Society of Coastal Agricultural Research 37(2): 153-161.

Bhattacharyya, P., Dash, P.K. and Pathak, H. (2020). Climate change and coastal agriculture: Impacts and adaptation. Journal of the Indian Society of Coastal Agriculture 38(2): 1-14.

Cannon, A.J., Sobie, S.R. and Murdock, T.Q. (2015). Bias correction of GCM precipitation by quantile mapping: how well do methods preserve changes in quantiles and extremes? Journal of Climate 28(17): 6938-6959. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00754.1.

Croitoru, A.E., Piticar, A. and Burada, D.C. (2016). Changes in precipitation extremes in Romania. Quaternary International 415: 325-335. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2015.07.028.

Das, S., Kamruzzaman, M. and Islam, A.M.T. (2022). Assessment of characteristic changes of regional estimation of extreme rainfall under climate change: A case study in a tropical monsoon region with the climate projections from CMIP6 model. Journal of Hydrology 610: 128002. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128002.

Dastagir, M.R. (2015). Modeling recent climate change induced extreme events in Bangladesh: A review. Weather and Climate Extremes 7: 49-60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.10.003.

Gowda, P., Steiner, J.L., Olson, C., Boggess, M., Farrigan, T. and Grusak, M.A. (2018). Agriculture and rural communities. In: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Forth National Climate Assessment, Vol. II, D.R, Reidmiller, C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.), U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. pp 391-437. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH10.

Habib-ur-Rahman, M., Ahmad, A., Reza, A., Hasnain, M.U., Alharby, H.F., Alzahrani, Y. M., Bamagoos, A.A., Hakeem, K.R., Ahmed, S., Nasim, W., Ali, S., Mansour, F. and Sabagh, A.E.L. (2022). Impact of climate change on agricultural production; issues, challenges, and opportunities in Asia. Frontiers Plant Science 13. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2022.925548.

Haque, M.A., Alam, M.A., Moniruzzaman, S.M. and Hoque, M.M. (2019). The impact of climate change in the coastal areas of Bangladesh affected by cyclone Bulbul. Bangladesh Journal of Extension Education 31(1&2): 13-27.

Hasan, M.K. Akhter, S., Chowdhury, M.A.H., Chaki, A.K., Chawdhery, M.R.A. and Zahan, T. (2019). Prediction of changing climatic effect and risk management by using simulation approaches for rice-wheat system in Bangladesh. Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Research 44(2): 311-326.

IPCC. (2018). Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C: An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, V. Masson-Delmotte, , P. Zhai, H.O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor and T. Waterfield (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. pp 3-24. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940.001.

IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014, Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.

Islam, M. (2022). Impacts of climate change on water resources, agricultural production and food security: evidence from Turkiye. Journal of Economy Culture and Society 66: 163-179. https://doi.org/10.26650/Jecs2021-1056971.

Islam, M.A. and Cartwright, N. (2020). Evaluation of climate reanalysis and space-borne precipitation products over Bangladesh. Hydrological Sciences Journal 65(7): 1112-1128. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1730845.

Islam, M.D.J. and Mondal, M.K. (1992). Water management strategy for increasing monsoon rice production in Bangladesh. Agricultural Water Management 22(4): 335-343. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-3774(92)90041-T.

Islam, M.S., Bell, R.W., Miah, M.A.M. and Alam, M.J. (2022). Farmers’ fertilizer use gaps relative to government recommendations in the saline coastal zone of the Ganges Delta. Agronomy for Sustainable Development 42: 59. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-022-00797-1.

Islam, T. and Neelim, A. (2010). Climate change in Bangladesh: A Closer Look into Temperature and Rainfall Data, First edition, The University Press, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Jensen, J.R., Mannan, S.M.A. and Uddin, S.M.N. (1993). Irrigation requirment of transplanted monsoon rice in Bangladesh. Agricultural Water Management 23(3): 199-212. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-3774(93)90028-9.

Kamruzzaman, M., Shahid, S., Islam, A.R.M.T., Hwang, S., Cho, J. and Zaman, M.A.U. (2021). Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 model performance in simulating historical precipitation and temperature in Bangladesh: a preliminary study. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 145: 1385-1406.

Kamruzzaman, M., Shahid, S., Roy, D.K., Islam, M.T.A.R., Hwang, S., Cho, J., Zaman, M. A.U., Sultana, T. Rashid, T. and Fatima, A. (2022). Assessment of CMIP6 global climate models in reconstructing rainfall climatology of Bangladesh. International Journal of Climatology 42(7): 3928-3953

Mainuddin, M., Kirby, M., Chowdhury, R.A.R. and Shah-Newaz, S.M. (2015). Spatial and temporal variations of, and the impact of climate change on, the dry season crop irrigation requirements in Bangladesh. Irrigation Science 33(2): 107-120. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00271-014-0451-3.

Maji, B., Sarangi, S.K., Mandal, U.K., Burman, D. and Balasubramaniam, P. (2020). Climate change and management options for sustainable soil health and crop production: eastern coast of India. Advanced Agricultural Research & Technology Journal IV(1): 28-41.

Minar, M.H., Hossain, M.B. and Shamsuddin, M D. (2013). Climate change and coastal zone of Bangladesh: vulnerability, resilience and adaptibility. Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research 13(1): 114-120. https://doi.org/10.5829/idosi.mejsr.2013.13.1.64121.

Ozer, O.O., Ozden, A. and Kan, M. (2020). Impact of global climate change on agricultural production: Balkan countries in 2050. Journal of Environmental Protection and Ecology 21(1): 151-158.

Paul, P.L.C. (2020). Agronomic practices increase sunflower yield in the rabi (dry) season in clay-textured, salt-affected soils of the coastal region of Bangladesh. Unpublisehd Ph.D. Dissertation, Murdoch University, Australia.

Paul, P.L.C., Bell, R.W., Barrett-Lennard, E.G., Kabir, E. and Gaydon, D.S. (2021). Opportunities and risks with early sowing of sunflower in a salt-affected coastal region of the Ganges Delta. Agronomy for Sustainable Development 41(3): 39. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-021-00698-9.

Rao, B.B., Chowdary, P.S., Sandeep, V.M., Pramod, V.P. and Rao, V.U.M. (2015). Spatial analysis of the sensitivity of wheat yields to temperature in India. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 200: 192-202.

Saha, R.R., Rahman, M.A., Rahman, M.H., Mainuddin, M., Bell, R., Gaydon, D.S. (2019). Cropping system intensification for increasing crop productivity in salt-affected coastal zones of Bangladesh. Proceedings 36(1): 172. https://doi.org/10.3390/proceedings2019036172.

Sarker, M.A.R., Alam, K. and Gow, J. (2012). Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: An analysis of time series data. Agricultural Systems112: 11-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2012.06.004.

Wilson, A.B., Avila-Diaz, A., Oliveira, L.F., Zuluaga, C.F. and Mark, B. (2022). Climate extremes and their impacts on agriculture across the eastern corn belt region of the U.S. Weather and Climate Extremes 37: 100467. https://doi.org//10.1016/j.wace.2022.100467.

Yu, Y., Mainuddin, M., Maniruzzaman, M., Mandal, U.K. and Sarangi, S.K. (2019). Rainfall and temperature characteristics in the coastal zones of Bangladesh and West Bengal, India. Journal of the Indian Society of Coastal Agricultural Research 37(2): 12-23.