Stagnation Amidst Growth in Odisha’s Marine Fisheries: A District-LevelAnalysis of Trends, Instability and Forecasts
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Authors
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SAMIRAN MUKHERJEE
Fisheries Economics, Extension, and Statistics Division, ICAR - Central Institute of Fisheries Education, Mumbai - 400 061, Maharashtra, India
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NEHA WAJAHAT QURESHI
Fisheries Economics, Extension, and Statistics Division, ICAR - Central Institute of Fisheries Education, Mumbai - 400 061, Maharashtra, India
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TALIB MOHAMMAD
Fisheries Economics, Extension, and Statistics Division, ICAR - Central Institute of Fisheries Education, Mumbai - 400 061, Maharashtra, India
Keywords:
Coastal Vulnerability, Instability Analysis, Odisha, Production Forecasting, Statistical ModellingAbstract
Odisha’s marine fisheries sector, though rich in resources, has experienced only modest growth over the past three decades. This study analyzes long-term trends (1990-91 to 2022-23), production instability, and future projections of marine fish output across the six coastal districts of Odisha. Using secondary data, the study applies compound growth rate analysis, exponential trend fitting, and time series forecasting models - ARIMA (0, 1, 1) and Holt’s Linear Trend (HLT) to assess the sector’s performance. Despite a 2.73 fold increase in total marine production during the study period, the overall compound growth rate remained low at 1.56%, indicating stagnation. Holt’s model outperformed ARIMA in forecasting accuracy (93% vs. 84%), supported by a lower AIC value, making it the preferred model for short-term prediction. Instability was examined using the Coefficient of Variation (C.V.), Coppock’s Instability Index (CII), and Cuddy-Della Valle Index (CDVI). Kendrapara emerged as the most unstable district, likely due to cyclone vulnerability, infrastructural gaps, regulatory constraints (e.g., turtle conservation bans), and limited mechanization. In contrast, districts like Balasore and Puri showed more stable but plateauing production. Findings also highlight how total catch alone can be misleading, as increases may reflect intensified fishing effort rather than healthier fish stocks. Catch per unit effort (CPUE) varies widely across gear types, with mechanized and multi-day trawlers showing much higher efficiency than traditional gears. To ensure sustainable marine fisheries growth in Odisha, policies must go beyond production targets to address district-specific vulnerabilities, improve disaster resilience, rationalize fishing effort, and strengthen local landing and market infrastructure.
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The data used in this study were obtained from publicly available secondary sources. These datasets can be accessed through official government websites. Further details or compiled datasets may be made available by the author upon reasonable request.
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