FORECASTING OF POTATO PRODUCTION IN HIMACHAL PRADESH USING ARIMA MODEL
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Authors
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Sapna Bhardwaj Sapna
CSK HPKV Palamour,H.P.
Abstract
This study focuses on the application of the ARIMA time series model to forecast the future potato production
in Himachal Pradesh based on past data from 1991-92 to 2019-20. The stationarity of the data has been checked using
the augmented dickey Fuller test which showed that the data was non-stationary. Therefore, differencing up to the first
order has been done to make it stationary. Based on various model selection criteria, the best-fitted model was ARIMA
(0, 1, 1) which has been used for the forecast of the next five years i.e., from 2020-2024. From the forecasted figure, potato
production will go from 29612.36 tons to 22543.08 tons in 2024 showing an increasing trend.
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