GROWTH OF POTATO PRODUCTION IN INDIA: A NON-PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES DATA

Abstract

Growth rates of area, production and yield of potato in India including its major producing states were estimated. Kernel Weighted Local Linear Regression Smoother, a non-parametric regression technique was used for this purpose. The temporal and spatial structural changes of cost of cultivation and remunerativeness of potato cultivation were also analysed. During the last 58 years, overall potato yield grew @ 1.5% at national level. After achieving spectacular growth during the seventies, the yield growth started to decline and in the recent past it became negative. Production also behaved similarly and reached a plateau. Cost of cultivation increased over the years. Farm harvest prices fluctuated greatly over the years leading to uncertainty of return from potato cultivation. During the last decade, share of seed in total cost of cultivation decreased in UP and Bihar and that of manure-fertilizers and machinery increased in all the states. Though the Himachal farmers received consistent good return over the years but West Bengal, UP and Bihar farmers incurred losses in many years when all the costs were considered. There is an immediate need to arrest the declining trend of yield. Concerted efforts to develop high yielding varieties with multiple disease-pest resistance, better post-harvest management technologies like latest innovative tools of biotechnology, agri-business, etc should be adopted to make potato cultivation a profitable enterprise.