Statistical Models for Estimating Trend and Growth Rate of Shrimp Culture and Production in India

Abstract

Linear and non-linear parametric regression models were fitted to the secondary data on area under culture and production of different species cultured crustaceans viz: Tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon), White leg shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) and Scampi (Macrobracium rosenbergii) to estimate the trend growth rate. Linear regression models like simple and polynomial models and non-linear models like Monomolecular, Logistic and Gompertz models were fitted to the data on total area under culture (AUC) and total production (P) as well as selected species wise shrimp culture and production using ordinary least square (OLS) method. Logistic model was found to be the best fitted model for total AUC and shrimp production. The estimated growth rate of total AUC was 0.138 ha/ year and total production was 0.379 tonnes/year. Gompertz model was the best fitted model for both AUC and production data of white leg shrimp, and cubic model was the best fitted model for AUC and production of Tiger shrimp and Scampi. In general, it was observed that the total area under culture and shrimp production in India is increasing. The introduction of White leg shrimp contributed significantly to the increase in total AUC and production of Shrimp in India. Based on the estimated carrying capacity of AUC and production of total shrimp and White leg shrimp indicated that there is further potential to increase the AUC and production of shrimp in India.