Modelling wheat (Triticum aestivum) production at state level in post-green revolution era

Abstract

Non-linear mechanistic growth models, viz monomolecular, logistic, Gompertz., mixed-influence and Richards,
were used for describing'state-wise, production-data of wheat (Triticum aestivum L. emend. Fiori & Paol.) during
1966-67 to 1992-93. The parameters of these models were estimated using Levenberg-Marquardt procedure for nonlinear
estimation. The 6 major wheat-growing states considered are Punjab, Haryana. Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh,
Rajasthan and Bihar. For each of these' states, logistic model described quite well the wheat-production data in the post
green-revolution cra. A comparative performance of various states for wheat production. showed that Haryana's
perfoemance is the best, as reflected by its high intrinsic growth rate and as it is still in the fast phase of growth, which
is likely to continue in near future also in view of the current trend.