Analysis of Trends in Temperature and Precipitation and its Impact on Hydrology of a Coastal River Basin in Eastern India
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Authors
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SHIVAM GUPTA
Central Agricultural University, Imphal - 795 004, Manipur, India
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UTKARSH GUPTA
Chandra Shekhar Azad University of Agriculture and Technology, Kanpur - 208 002, Uttar Pradesh, India
Keywords:
Baitarani river, Climate change, Hydrological modeling, Trend analysisAbstract
Temperature and precipitation are the main components of the hydrologic cycle which is affected by the climate change phenomena. Coastal river systems are affected severely by the change in sea surface temperature, coastal wind and other dominating factors in the region. This article focuses on the hydrological modeling of a coastal river basin in Eastern India named as Baitarani river and further trends in historical temperature and precipitation data were analyzed for assessment of the changes in magnitude of these climatic variables. Soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) hydrological model was selected for the hydrological modeling of the river basin with manual calibration process. Correlation coefficient for model calibration at monthly scale was found 0.89 whereas for the validation period it was found to be 0.78. Calibrated and validated hydrological model was further used for the projection of streamflow up to the year 2050 for RCP2.6 scenario. Projection of streamflow suggests a rise in discharge during the monsoon season which can be attributed to the increased rainfall under the influence of climate change. Trend analysis of precipitation and temperature suggests a statistically significant rise in summer temperature and monsoon precipitation which result in rising discharge in the river.
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