ASSESSMENT OF RAINFALL FORECAST ACCURACY FOR VIZIANAGARAM DISTRICT OF NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH
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Authors
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ALIVENI A
Regional Agricultural Research Station, Anakapalle - 531 001 Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University, Guntur, Andhra Prdaesh, India
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GOURI V
Regional Agricultural Research Station, Anakapalle - 531 001 Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University, Guntur, Andhra Prdaesh, India
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RAMANA MURHTY K V
Regional Agricultural Research Station, Anakapalle - 531 001 Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University, Guntur, Andhra Prdaesh, India
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MUKUNDA RAO CH
Regional Agricultural Research Station, Anakapalle - 531 001 Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University, Guntur, Andhra Pradesh, India
Keywords:
Forecast, Rainfall, Verification, VizianagaramAbstract
The rainfall forecast and validation are important because of the socio-economic implications
for the nation. An attempt was made to confirm the correctness and dependability of the spatial
rainfall forecast of Vizianagaram district of North Coastal Andhra Pradesh during the year 2024
2025.The rainfall forecast provided by IMD, Pune for Vizianagaram districtwas verified with daily
observed weather data obtained from the Chief Planning Office,by calculating a variety of
categorical statistical measures from the elements of the contingency table on seasonal basis.
Statistics were presented for Percentage correct (PC),Probability of Detection(POD), Critical
Success Index (CSI), Heidke Skill Score (HSS) and Hansen Kuipers score(HKS) of the district
wise forecast.Overall, rainfall accuracy was found to be successful, with moderate to high
performance. The positive HSS and HKS indicated the reliability of forecast at satisfactory level.
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