WEATHER-BASED REGRESSION ANALYSIS FOR PREDICTION AND VALIDATION OF GROUNDNUT LEAF MINER (APROAEREMA MODICELLA) INCIDENCE UNDER ARID ALFISOLS
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Authors
-
RADHIKA P
Agricultural Research Station, Ananthapuramu,Andhra Pradesh-515001 Acharya N G Ranga Agricultural University, Lam , Guntur
Keywords:
Groundnut leaf Miner, Integrated Pest Management, lagged weather effects, pest forecasting, regression modellingAbstract
A study was conducted during 2020 to 2022 under arid alfisols at the Agricultural Research
Station, Ananthapuramu, Andhra Pradesh.A Regression analysis of Groundnut Leaf Miner (GLM
) moth catches with weather parameters revealed a significant positive correlation with Relative
Humidity-I ( RH-I) at 5 days lag (0.55*) and 6 days lag (0.59*) and Rainfall (RF) at 8 days lag
(0.51*) and negative correlation with Wind velocity (Wv) (-0.51*).The leaf damage showed
significant and positive correlation with Maximum Temperature (Tmax) (0.67*), Mean Temperature
(Tmean) (0.53*),Evaporation (Evp) (0.72*) at 6 days lag and negative correlation with Relative
Humidity-II (RH-II)(-0.68*) and Wv(-0.5*) at 5 days lag, and RH-I (-0.5*),Rf(-0.65*) at 6 days lag.
RH-II at (-0.58*) at 7 days lag and 8 days lag RH-II (-0.55*) and Sun shine hours (Ssh) (
0.69*).No.of Live larvae/plant recorded significant positive correlation with Tmean(0.5*) and
Rf(0.67*) at 9 days lag. and significant negative correlation with Rainfall (-0.5*) at 6 days lag and
Wv(-0.79*) at 7 days lag and Minimum Temperature (Tmin) (-0.50*), Tmean(-0.55*) at 8 days lag
and Tmax(-0.62*), Tmin(-0.65*), Tmean(-0.74*) and RH-I (-0.5*) at 9 days lag. The study showed
that mean temperature was the strongest positive predictor of groundnut leafminer incidence,
while higher maximum and minimum temperatures suppressed the pest. Morning humidity slightly
favoured infestation, but higher afternoon humidity reduced it. These results highlight temperature
and humidity as key weather drivers of leafminer outbreaks. With an R² of 0.97, the model explained
most of the variation in pest incidence, though independent validation is needed to confirm its
reliability.
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