Unveiling the impacts of global uncertainties ITSA Approach for quantifying the impacts of Covid-19 on agricultural trade

Abstract

The study quantifies the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the bilateral agricultural trade between India and China using the Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ITSA) technique. India’s agricultural exports to China increased by approximately 48 per cent post-Covid-19. The post-pandemic, cumin exports to China increased significantly due to increasing health concerns. The exports of castor oil and groundnut shot up as well. Conversely, the exports of frozen fish, shrimps, and prawns declined. However, India’s agricultural imports from China, primarily fertilizers, displayed a volatile pattern. An immediate shock was observed in the case of urea and DAP imports, but the declines were not persistent for a long time.