Modeling and forecasting of milk production in different breeds in Turkey

HARUN YONAR; AYNUR YONAR; PRADEEP MISHRA; MOSTAFA ABOTALEB; ABDULLAH MOHAMMAD GHAZI AL KHATIB; TATIANA MAKAROVSKIKH; MUSTAFA CAM

doi:10.56093/ijans.v92i1.120934

Authors

HARUN YONAR Selcuk University, Konya, Turkey
AYNUR YONAR Selcuk University, Konya, Turkey
PRADEEP MISHRA Selcuk University, Konya, Turkey
MOSTAFA ABOTALEB Selcuk University, Konya, Turkey
ABDULLAH MOHAMMAD GHAZI AL KHATIB Selcuk University, Konya, Turkey
TATIANA MAKAROVSKIKH Selcuk University, Konya, Turkey
MUSTAFA CAM Selcuk University, Konya, Turkey

https://doi.org/10.56093/ijans.v92i1.120934

Keywords:

ARIMA, Forecasting, Holtâ€™s Linear Trend, Milk production, TBATS

Abstract

Identification of milk production is one of the key activities for the Turkish economy in terms of providing economic income for dairy smallholders and meeting consumer demands. This study aims to predict milk production in Turkey using various time series models which are BATS, TBATS, Holt's Linear Trend, ARIMA models, and NNAR. Yearly data from 1991 to 2019 on Milk Production is used in this study. The best time series model is selected from the testing data set (2015 to 2019) based on the lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results of this study showed that the best predicts are obtained for Culture purebred milk production by an ARIMA (1,2,1) model, for Crossbreed milk production by a TBATS Model, for Indigenous milk production by ARIMA (0,2,0) model for total milking cows' production by Holtâ€™s Linear Trend model. Furthermore, these models forecasted an increasing trend in the production of milk from 2020 to 2025. The percentage increases for culture purebred milk, Crossbreed milk production, and Indigenous milk production from 2020 to 2025 are projected to be 40, 20.9 and 10.9%, respectively. Overall, the total milking cows' production is projected to increase by 25% in 2025.

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