Changing Pattern of Livestock Products Trade in India

Abstract

Data on Indian import and export of livestock products from 2010-11 to 2016-17 were
collected from the reports of FAO and APEDA and used for forecasting the future direction
of international trade using Markov Chain analysis. The transition probability matrix
indicated that India could not retain its previous export of dairy products to Afghanistan and
Oman. India’s previous export of dairy products to the UAE market was retained at 23.70%.
The remaining 58.70% was diverted to other countries. The probability of retention of the
present quantity of dairy products imported was the highest for other countries (96.40%),
followed by import from Denmark (44.20%). India could not retain its previous import of
dairy products from France, Turkey and Italy during the period. The probability of retention
of the present quantity of processed meat export was the highest for UAE (39.70%), followed
by other countries (36.9%). India could not retain its previous export of processed meat to
Qatar and Maldives. There was 100% probability of shifting of export to India from Sri
Lanka to other countries, and from Spain to Sri Lanka. There were 93.50% and 69.70%
probabilities to shift India’s import from Belgium to Sri Lanka and from Thailand to Sri
Lanka, respectively. India’s previous buffalo meat export to Iraq market was retained at
59.60%. The remaining 40.40% was diverted to other countries (33.70%) and Indonesia
(6.60%). Malaysia showed only 7.90% probability to retain its export market from India
and its remaining 92.00% share was found directed to Vietnam. India was having 100%
probability to retain the import of buffalo meat from Belgium, followed by New Zealand
(70.50%) and Australia (26.80%). The probability of retention of export of poultry products
to the Maldives was at 65.10%. India could not retain its previous export of poultry products
to Japan and Vietnam. Vietnam’s share of poultry products imports from India was diverted
to other countries (86.10%). India’s previous poultry products import from France market
was retained at 52.00% and 48% was diverted to others (39.30%).