Forecasting of egg production and wholesale egg price in Coimbatore district of Tamil Nadu

Abstract

The growth of poultry farming depends on feed and egg prices and hence proper planning needs to he made. 1be present paper confined itself to the time-series analysis to forecast egg production and wholesale egg price in Coimbatore district of Tamil Nadu. Necessary data for egg production and wholesale egg price from 1977-78 to 1988-89, and January 1959 to Match 1990, respectively, were collected from primary sources. Of the various time-series models, viz. simple extrapolation models(linear trend model, log-linear regression equation and autoregressive trend model); smoothing methods (single ex.ponential smoothing with 0.2, 0.4, 0.6 and 0.8 as '(a) values and adaptive-response-rate single exponential smoothing); decomposition method (ratio-to-moving average decomposition method); and stochastic time-series models (autoregressive integrated moving average) applied to egg production and monthly average wholesale egg price, ratio· to-moving average decomposition method was the appropriate method since it possessed minimum mean squared error. Also time-series models, viz. linear trend modeJ, single exponential smoothing with 'a' values as 0.2, 004, 0.6 and 0.8 and linear moving average applied to monthly rearranged wholesale egg price revealed higher meall squared error as compared to original arrangement (earlier to later months).