TRENDS AND PATTERNS OF DRY SPELLS IN KARNATAKA


412 / 103

Authors

  • ARPITA PANDEY* and SRINIVASA SASDHAR PONNALURU Department of Economics, Vijayanagara Srikrishnadevaraya University, Bellary - 583 105

Keywords:

Drought, El Niño, Spatial Analysis, SPI, South-West Monsoon.

Abstract

Drought affects agricultural growth by its duration and frequency. Karnataka an agrarian-based
economy, experienced frequent intense droughts in the last two decades. This study analyzed the
intensity and duration of dry spells that occurred in Karnataka between 1990 and 2020 in the spatial
context by using SPI. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) helped in identifying four significant
drought incidents in the last three decades. Mann-Kendall Test was used to identify the trend in the
SPI values. The results showed that the droughts in last decade were more intensive compared to
previous two decades. The duration of recent dry spells got overlapped between two different drought
periods. The northern districts of State get more frequent dry spells compared to the southern districts.

References

1. APDES. 2020. Agricultural statistics at a glance:

2. -20. Directorate of Economics and

3. Statistics, Andhra Pradesh.

4. Areef, M and Radha. 2020. Application of

5. GARCH and ANN models for potato price

6. forecasting: A case study of Bangalore

7. market, Karnataka state. Indian Journal of

8. Agricultural Marketing. 34(3): 44- 52.

9. Andhra Prabha. 2021.Chilli exports to London.

10. News written by Prabha News Bureau.

11. Guntur, 8th May 2021. 5. Retrieved from the

12. website (https://epaper.prabhanews.com/c/

13. on 8th May, 2021.

14. Girish, K. J and Kanchan, S. 2013. Agricultural

15. price forecasting using neural network

16. model: an innovative information delivery

17. system. Agricultural Economics Research

18. Review. 26(2): 229-239.

19. Hyndman, R J. 2017. Forecast: Forecasting

20. functions for time series and linear models.

21. R package version 8.1.

22. Jha, G. K., Thulasiraman, P and Thulasiram, R.

23. K. 2009. PSO based neural network for time

24. series forecasting. Proceedings of the

25. International Joint Conference on Neural

26. Networks. Atlanta, USA. pp. 1422-1427.

27. Lakshmi, S. B. R., Devi, B. L and Prasad, S. V.

28. Arrival pattern and price trends of

29. chillies (Dry) in Guntur market of Andhra

30. Pradesh. Indian Journal of Agricultural

31. Marketing. 28(1): 63-69.

32. Rathod, S., Singh, K. N., Patil, S. G.,

33. Ravindrakumar, H. N., Mrinmoy. R and

34. Vikram, S. M. 2018. Modeling and

35. forecasting of oilseed production of India

36. through artificial intelligence techniques.

37. Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences.

38. (1): 22-27.

39. Srikala. M., Devi, B. I and Ananda, T. 2016. Price

40. behaviour of chillies in Guntur market of

41. Andhra Pradesh, India. Indian Journal of

42. Agricultural Research. 50(5): 471-474.

43. Vijay, N and Mishra, G.C. 2018. Time series

44. forecasting using ARIMA and ANN models

45. for production of pearl millet (Bajra) crop of

46. Karnataka, India. International Journal

47. Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences.

48. (12): 880-889.

49. Zhang, G., Patuwo, B. E and Hu, M. Y. 1998.

50. Forecasting with artificial neural networks:

51. The state of the art. International Journal

52. of Forecasting. 14: 35-62.

53. Dickey, D. A and Fuller, W. A. 1979. Distribution

54. of the estimators for autoregressive time

55. series with a unit root. Journal of American

56. Statistical Association. 74(6): 427–431.

57. Engle, R and Yoo, B. S. 1987. Forecasting and

58. testing in cointegrated system. Journal of

59. Econometrics. 35(1): 143-159.

60. Padhan, P. C. 2012. Application of ARIMA model

61. for forecasting agricultural productivity in

62. India. Journal of Agriculture and Social

63. Sciences. 8(1):50-56.

64. Hamjah, M. A. 2014. Forecasting major fruit crops

65. productions in Bangladesh using Box-

66. Jenkins ARIMA model. Journal of Economics

67. and Sustainable Development. 5(7): 96-107.

68. Rahman, F. N. M., Baten, M. A., Roy, A and

69. Hossain, M. M. 2013. Forecasting of lentil

70. pulse production: An econometric analysis.

71. Australian Journal of Basic and Applied

72. Sciences.7(2): 819-824.

73. Mahapatra, S. K and Dash, A. 2019. Forecasting

74. area and production of mung bean in

75. Odisha using ARIMA model. International

76. Journal of Chemical Studies. 7(3): 3899-

Downloads

Published

31-12-2021

How to Cite

ARPITA PANDEY* and SRINIVASA SASDHAR PONNALURU. (2021). TRENDS AND PATTERNS OF DRY SPELLS IN KARNATAKA. The Journal of Research ANGRAU, 49(4), 86-94. https://epubs.icar.org.in/index.php/TJRA/article/view/133584